How many collectors?

[coppercoins]

This thread is slightly different from the thread in the die varieties area - for this one I want to know how many Lincoln cent series collectors are out there (in your opinion)...This would include anyone who you believe collects Lincoln cents seriously enough to get a lot of use out of a site like this one (once it's finished, of course) as well as the seasoned specialists and the die variety or error collectors who focus their attention on the Lincoln cent.

If you answer "over 500,000" please estimate a number in a post within this thread.

I don't know if there is a relatively accurate number, and if there is, I don't know what that number would be.

[cladking]

It depends a lot on the nature and direction of the site and even more on those collecting. Even a novice with little interest would have a great deal of benefit from using the site but is unlikely to since he'll have more pressing concerns. There are still large numbers of serious collectors of Lincolns but in many cases their interest is nearly dormant since they completed their collections right up through 1964 or chance or a lack of interest have prevented their finding the site yet. There are probably a couple million cent collectors who have spent many many hours seeking coins for their collections or just looking at them and studying them. Two thirds of these probably have not much thought about the collection for over a year and the others are more actively working on or studying their sets. Many people have been updating their sets with the memorials in the last few years which is certainly having a large effect on these. There are also a lot of people rying to upgrade their collections which is having a dramatic effect on the older high grade coins.

[Art]

I chose the over 500K entry because I feel that the Lincoln cent is the most commonly collected coin in all of Numismatics. I'd have to guess that 60-70% of all the kids who start collecting, such as Boy & Girl Scouts working on badges, start with Lincolns. I'm not sure what percentage continue to collect seriously from that point, but they are collectors.

Virtually every collector that I know has a collection of Lincolns. They may not be actively filling in the slots, but they have them. I know some people who have 8 - 10 sets of Lincolns, a few with some complete sets.

Overall I would say that these people are not die variety collectors. Additionally I'd guess that most of them are not very active Lincoln collectors. They may purchase Lincolns for their sets, but usually as part of a purchasing trip or buying deal for other items.

If I had to guess at the number of really die-hard Lincoln collectors I'd guess at maybe 50K.

[Bob P]

Well, there are probably millions of collectors of Licoln Cents. As was stated earlier, almost everyone at one time or another collected pennies. I did a little research on the sales of Whitman folders, and the number I came up with was over 1.2 million cent folders since 1968. Of course that doesn't mean 1.2 individual collectors, but certainly the number would be over half a million. In addition, there are avid collectors of U.S. coinage from overseas areas.
Art and Rich have good points about who the collectors might be. In addition, those folks who just throw pennies in a jar could technically be called collectors. I'll bet there are 50 million or more of those folks.
I guess once you get a general idea, then the next step would be to break it down further such as the "hardcore" collector. I don't know if you could ever get a definitive answer though Chuck.

Bob P

[coppercoins]

My main reason centers around this:

The following information, at the least, would be in the "finished" site for each year:

1. mintage reporting
2. circulation reporting (from the circulation study)
3. known varieties
4. all of the known die varieties.
5. known BIE dies.
6. known CUDs.
7. grading tips for that year.
8. special news relating to that year.
9. certified auction results for that year.
10. roll prices for that year.

Imagining all of that information neatly packed into a page for each given year (the date guide), now tell me how many people you think would be interested in subscribing to it? This is, of course, in addition to the attribution guide as a whole, the news archive, book reviews, the forum, chat, the store, classified ads, image hosting, member collection inventory database, and more that I may be missing.

Your guess would be based on the number of people who collect Lincolns seriously enough to want all this information at their fingertips and don't mind paying a subscription fee priced much like a magazine subscription to be a member of the site. It would include registry collectors, upgrade collectors, people who want to consider Lincolns as a specialty, those who already specialize in Lincolns, and people who want to use the site for information to better sell their extras.

[SteveAZ]

[Bob P]

Based on what you are willing to give out in your package Chuck, I figure the number would be relatively smaller, but still enough to make the project worth persuing. I would guesstimate around 2500-5000 serious enough to want that information and to pay a small fee for getting it.
I think Steve has it right on when he says that info is available, but nowhere can it be obtained in one neat bundle. As I stated earlier though, I don't know if if would be possible to get a somewhat accuate number out there. Maybe polling a bunch of dealers might help? I was thinking about the attendance at coin shows, but those are pretty much all inclusive.

Bob P

[coppercoins]

Well, actually I was thinking along those lines and could do with less - if 2,500 people joined, this site would be a resounding success. I want to offer whatever services I (and you) can think of in order to make it the right service for as many people as possible. That's the goal. There are additional goals farther on out, but the current goal is to tune the attribution system for Lincolns and shape the remainder of the site around all copper coins as it should be. It was never my intent to have a Lincoln cent die variety only site, but events had it turn out that the die variety system was what could be worked on when it was...it's time to start figuring out some of the other features and try to do something with them.

[SteveAZ]

C.D.,
The information you mentioned is available each year as factual reports. The die varieties and combinations are a set number, as with mintage, roll prices and auction reports. The rest is available online at several different sites as I am sure you have a better list of them than I do. It would be enough to just compile it and make it available for either viewing online or downloads.
Steve

[SteveAZ]

I have another thought on that subject. If you were to put together a report like this for each year, back to 1909 for example(hell of a task), you could offer the info in downloads for a few bucks per year. people could say they wanted the info from 1909, 1913 and 1955 for example. If you had say 2500 people download each year at say $3 thats $7500. Also you could have a website that has a membership to view the details and charge an annual fee. just a couple thoughts.
Steve

[coppercoins]

I believe a lot of what you're talking about would require that I write a separate application that runs without a browser - a downloadable and installable program. I'd prefer to stick with the web for now...at least I know how to program for it. My java isn't quite all-that yet.

As for the information, it would be best if people checked in rather regularly because stuff will be added to the data all the time - it will be constantly evolving thus becoming more precise and correct as time goes on...statistics say that the more numbers you have to average, the more precise the answer. There are a number of things that fits in the data I will be collecting over time.

With membership, people will be able to access the inner workings of the site and will be able to access parts of the site that will help them inventory and value their collection, as well as the complete attribution reference - a huge mass of data for the money, in my opinion. They will also eventually have their own e-mail address at coppercoins, and will also have image hosting and other features - something like what some of the big sites offer.

Like Steve said, the "one package" idea is what I'm after. The one-stop place for all copper info. One of the more important parts to this is since the web is dynamic and data is being plugged all the time, the data is constantly changing, unlike a book. Yes, the info can be found in other places, for the better part, but anything that's published in print is now out of date, unless it was published this year. That's the difference between printed books and this site.

[Bob P]

Good point Chuck. Some data does seem to get stagnant and outdated after a little while. If we can get the word out that this information will be available in a one-stop site, I am sure the membership will be substantial. The more the merrier I say!!

Bob P

[SteveAZ]

[Iain]

I think that data could be split into two (or possibly three) different categories:

1. Variety Information.
2. Certified/High Grade Information.
3. Circulation Information/History.

1 and 3 seem to be a given. As for item 2...trying to find someone who really, really knows what they are talking about and who is willing to share that information might be tough. High grade market makers rely on an inequality of knowledge about their specialty to make much of their profit and are usually not willing to share. These days I keep my mouth shut about the certified Lincoln market; if I were to share what I know publicly I would risk losing many of my sources of information.

IMH

[cladking]

At the current time getting information on the availability of high grade Lincolns can be pretty difficult. Until recently one could just go find a bunch of rolls and mint sets and get an excellent idea, but in the last year a lot more of these have been getting picked over. While large numbers of unaffected sets still exist, without prior knowledge it will be difficult to be certain that the lot is choiced or not.

The grading services release numbers graded in the various dates, but these numbers are greatly influenced by factors which are independent of the numbers in existence. Most notably is the value of the coins in high grade which is determined largely by demand. This demand is largely determined by the percieved scarcity of the coin in rolls and sets rather than the scarcity of high grade examples alone. While resubmissions are not a major factor with most Lincolns the availability of the various dates of sets in the last couple years is. The mint sets on the market are determined largely by the CDN price Vs the percieved value and the flow from estates. This last changes only glacially but is dramatically different than it was many years ago which will skew the pops relative to the actual number of surviving examples.

In time the "pops" will accurately reflect the reality and in the meantime we'll just have to look for ourselves or wait for someone to report his own experiences. There are frequently such threads on most of the coin sites including one on this very forum. There is an excellent one on the NGC site now.

For most collectors and some others it is in their interest that this information is readily available. This will probably be true right up to the time that raw coins are difficult to find.